The survey was conducted July 25-Aug. 6, yielding 562 responses from Wyoming residents identified as likely voters in the Aug. 16 Republican Party primary. The margin of error for the primary survey is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Just over one-quarter, 28 percent, of GOP primary voters support incumbent candidate Cheney, while 57 percent support Hageman. Candidate Anthony Bouchard polled at 2 percent, while candidates Denton Knapp and Robyn Belinskey both polled below 1 percent. Ten percent of likely GOP voters say they are still undecided.

“The race for the Republican nomination appears to be a referendum on Cheney, as it usually is when an incumbent seeks re-election,” says Jim King, professor of political science at UW.

Among survey respondents expecting to vote for Cheney, 66 percent indicated their vote was an expression of support for the incumbent congresswoman. In contrast, 29 percent of respondents expecting to cast ballots for another candidate said they were supporting that candidate, while 41 percent said their vote was in opposition to Cheney.

Traditionally, surveys polling primary elections might utilize lists of registered voters in that party. While that approach may be more cost effective, there are potential shortcomings that needed to be considered in a primary such as this.

“Given the unique attention this race is receiving, and the accompanying increases in voter registration and potential party switching, we decided to field this survey to a random sample of all Wyoming residents on cell phones and landlines and work to identify likely voters in the GOP primary,” says Brian Harnisch, director of WYSAC. “When looking only at residents who say they are Republican and likely voters in the primary, we actually see Hageman leading by roughly 50 points.”

Among Wyoming residents who identify as Democrats and likely voters in this primary season, roughly half say they will vote in the Republican primary. Among this group, Cheney received 98 percent support. Among Republican likely voters in the GOP primary, Cheney is polling at roughly 15 percent. Among likely voters in the primary who identify as independent, support is split, with 41 percent supporting Hageman and 43 percent supporting Cheney.

“There has been much talk in the media about Democrats crossing over and voting in the Republican primary; this group is not especially large,” King says.

Of likely voters in the primary, only 8 percent identify as Democrats, and 21 percent identify as independents. According to King, independents regularly play an important role Republican primaries and thus are key to Cheney’s chances. Her lack of support among Republican identifiers and inability to dominate among independents has placed Cheney well behind Hageman.

In the 2020 primary election, Wyoming saw a roughly 61 percent turnout of registered voters. In the 2020 general election, roughly 100 percent of registered voters turned out to vote. As previously mentioned, roughly half of self-identified Democrats who will vote in a primary indicate they will register for or have registered for the Republican Party and vote in that primary.

“Back-of-the-napkin math says that number could represent as many as 20,000 votes in the GOP primary from currently registered Democrats, compared to as many as 200,000-plus votes from registered Republicans,” Harnisch says. “It does not appear at the time of this survey the numbers are there for party switching to have a significant effect on the outcome of this race.”

Of those likely voters who support Hageman in this primary, only 16 percent believe that Joe Biden’s election as president was legitimate, compared to 94 percent of Cheney supporters. Some 72 percent of Hageman supporters in the GOP primary say there is solid evidence of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election, while 3 percent of Cheney supporters say the same.

When considering how closely likely primary voters have been watching the January 6 House Select Committee hearings, 83 percent of Cheney supporters say they have been following very closely or somewhat closely. Alternatively, 57 percent of Hageman supporters say they have been following not too closely or not closely at all.

Both landline and cellular telephone numbers were randomly generated for the study, resulting in 70 percent of completed surveys on cell phones. The survey was funded by the Wyoming Survey and Analysis Center, UW’s School of Politics, Public Affairs and International Studies, and Wyoming Public Media.

View the complete topline survey results here: https://wysac.uwyo.edu/wysac/reports/View/7723

Just under two-thirds (62 percent) of Wyomingites say they are very or somewhat likely to get the COVID-19 vaccine when available to them or that they already have received at least one dose. Alternatively, 7 percent say they are somewhat unlikely, while nearly a third of Wyoming residents (31 percent) say they are very unlikely.

In follow-up questions of those who say they are unlikely to receive the vaccine, over two-thirds (69 percent) say that concerns about side-effects are a major reason.  Additionally, 54 percent say they do not think they need it, and 56 percent say a major reason they are unlikely to get the vaccine is they want to know more about how well it will work.

“A majority of those who have not yet received the vaccine say they do not have enough information about the potential side-effects,” says Brian Harnisch, senior research scientist in charge of the project at WYSAC. “Additionally, it appears that residents still have questions about the effectiveness of the vaccine, as well as when and where people like them will be able to get the vaccine.”

Over half (55 percent) of residents who have not received the vaccine say they do not have enough information about when they will be able to get it, while 44 percent say they do not have enough information about where they will be able to get the vaccine. Sixty-three percent of those who have not received the vaccine say they do not have enough information about the side-effects, and 56 percent say they do not have enough information about the effectiveness.

The survey was conducted for 24 hours beginning on Monday, Feb. 1,  and is the 13th of multiple surveys WYSAC is conducting to measure public opinion on a number of topics related to COVID-19. A total of 526 Wyoming residents participated in the survey representing all Wyoming counties, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

Other findings from the latest survey:

— Self-reported mask use in indoor public places has declined slightly since early January, with 72 percent of residents saying they always or often wear a mask in this situation.

— Asked to reflect on 2020 overall, 47 percent of Wyoming residents say they approve of how Donald Trump handled COVID-19 in the U.S., while 51 percent say they disapprove.

— Asked how Joe Biden is handling COVID-19 in the US, 42 percent of Wyoming residents say they approve, while 43 percent say they disapprove. Additionally, 15 percent say they are not sure how he is handling the pandemic.

To see the survey methodology, chart, figures, and complete survey results, go to https://wysac.uwyo.edu/wysac/reports/View/7716

The survey was conducted Oct. 6, around the time when Wyoming was in the early stages of the current COVID-19 surge.

Over one-third of Wyomingites say they’re very or fairly anxious about the spread of COVID-19 in the state, an increase of 7 percentage points from September, but still 4 points less than the Aug. 10 survey. Another 20 percent say they are somewhat anxious about the spread in Wyoming, while just over 40 percent of Wyoming residents say they are not at all anxious about the spread in Wyoming.

While just over one-third of Wyomingites say the worst is yet to come in the United States, 39 percent say the worst is yet to come in Wyoming — an increase of 10 percentage points since September. Only 17 percent think the worst is behind us, a decrease of 9 points.

A majority, 53 percent, of Wyoming residents say they have confidence in the Wyoming health care system to handle the response to COVID-19, while 29 percent say they do not have confidence.

“Despite an increase in anxiety surrounding COVID-19 in Wyoming, we see self-reported facemask use remain steady at just over 60 percent of the state population,” says Brian Harnisch, senior research scientist in charge of the project at WYSAC. “This compares to roughly 85 percent of the national population that say they have worn a mask or covering all or most of the time when in stores or other businesses.”

The survey is the ninth of multiple surveys WYSAC is conducting to measure public opinion on a number of topics related to COVID-19. A total of 505 Wyoming residents participated in the survey representing all Wyoming counties, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Other findings from the latest survey:

— Those who describe COVID-19 as a “real threat” stand at 47 percent, up 2 points from September, while 46 percent say it is “blown out of proportion,” down 2 points.

— Just under two-thirds, 65 percent, of Wyomingites say they are very or somewhat concerned about the impact of COVID-19 on their personal finances.

— A slight majority, 55 percent, say they support a limit on public gatherings as a policy to slow the spread of COVID-19, an increase of 4.4 points since September. Alternatively, just 21 percent say they support the closure of K-12 schools, and 19 percent support the closure of daycare centers, a decrease of 7 points each since September.

— A majority, 61 percent, of Wyomingites say they always or often wear a facemask when in indoor public places. Alternatively, 24 percent say they rarely or never wear a mask.

— Approval of the way Gov. Mark Gordon is handling the COVID-19 crisis declined, with 60 percent saying they strongly approve or somewhat approve of the way he is handling things — a decrease of 6 percentage points.  His net approval rating is at plus 24.7 points.

— A large majority, 71 percent, say they trust the information they hear from the governor about COVID-19 a great deal or a good amount.

— Approval of the way President Donald Trump is handling the COVID-19 has remained steady, with 55 percent saying they strongly approve or somewhat approve of the way he is handling things. President Trump’s net approval rating is at plus 11.7 points.

— Exactly half (50 percent) of Wyoming residents say they trust the information they hear from Trump about COVID-19 a great deal or a good amount.

— Regarding the way local government and health officials are handling the COVID-19 crisis, 64 percent say they strongly approve or somewhat approve of the way they are handling things, resulting in a net approval rating of plus 32.7 points.

— A large majority, 73 percent, say they trust the information they hear from their local government officials about COVID-19 a great deal or a good amount.

— Approval of the way Congress is handling the COVID-19 crisis remains low, with just 19 percent saying they strongly approve or somewhat approve of the way Congress is handling things, resulting in a net approval rating of minus 53.8 points.

To see the survey methodology, chart, figures and complete survey results, download the full report: https://wysac.uwyo.edu/wysac/reports/View/6706

Asked about a face mask ordinance in their communities requiring use in outdoor public places, 56 percent opposed, while 36 percent said they would support.

The survey, conducted Tuesday, July 14, is the sixth of multiple surveys WYSAC is conducting to measure public opinion on a number of topics related to COVID-19. A total of 504 Wyoming residents participated in the survey representing all Wyoming counties, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

“We see an increase for all face mask-related topics since we began measuring in these items in March,” says Brian Harnisch, senior research scientist in charge of the project at WYSAC. “Nearly half of all Wyoming residents now say they wear masks when visiting indoor public places, while over half say they would support local ordinances requiring use in indoor public places.”

Comfort levels for attending outdoor events in Wyoming this summer and fall have decreased since June, with 45 percent of residents saying they would be comfortable attending an outdoor event with up to 250 people — down from 56 percent in June. When considering outdoor events with more than 250 people, 40 percent of residents say they would be comfortable attending — down from 52 percent in June.

People were asked a series of questions regarding factors that might make them more or less likely to attend outdoor events this summer or fall:

— 40 percent say they would be more likely to attend if face masks were required of all attendees, while 35 percent said they would be less likely.

— 31 percent say they would be more likely to attend if there were special “safe zones” or similarly designated areas where face mask use and social distancing were required and enforced; 25 percent say they would be less likely to attend.

— If face mask use were optional, 23 percent say they would be more likely to attend, while 40 percent say they would be less likely to attend.

— If all attendees had a temperature check upon entry, 38 percent say they would be more likely to attend, while 16 percent say they would be less likely to attend.

— If hand-sanitizing stations were available throughout the venue, 47 percent say they would be more likely to attend, while 4 percent say they would be less likely to attend.

— 42 percent say they would be more likely to attend an outdoor event if social distancing rules for attendees were enforced everywhere at the event, while 24 percent say they would be less likely to attend.

— If there were maximum occupancy/attendee numbers enforced to promote social distancing, 44 percent say they would be more likely to attend, while 17 percent say they would be less likely to attend.

— If there were no social distancing rules, 15 percent say they would be more likely to attend, while 53 percent say they would be less likely to attend an outdoor event this summer or fall.

Since the last survey iteration June 8, there has been an increase in the proportion of people who who support policies enacted to limit public gatherings, with 61 percent saying they support such policies, an increase of 4 percentage points. However, support for the closure of K-12 schools, day care centers, and bars and restaurants continues to decline, as does support for a “shelter-in-place” order.

Concerns related to COVID-19 increased for almost all aspects in this survey iteration, a reversal of the downward trend observed since March:

— 25 percent say they are very anxious about the spread of COVID-19 in the United States (+13 points since June).

— 17 percent say they are very anxious about the spread of COVID-19 in Wyoming (+9 points since June).

— 45 percent think the worst is yet to come in the United States (+19 points since June).

— 42 percent think the worst is yet to come in Wyoming (+14 points since June).

— Asked if they think COVID-19 is a real threat or blown out of proportion, 53 percent believe it is a real threat, an increase of 9 points since June.

— 23 percent of residents now say they are worried someone in their immediate family might catch COVD-19, an increase of 9 points since June.

Approval of the way Gov. Mark Gordon is handling the COVID-19 crisis remains high, with 66 percent saying they strongly approve or somewhat approve of the way he is handling things. Gordon’s net approval rating (approval minus disapproval) is at plus 35 percent.

Approval of the way President Donald Trump is handling the COVID-19 decreases significantly, with 49 percent saying they strongly approve or somewhat approve of the way he is handling things. President Trump’s net approval rating is at plus 2 points, down from plus 17 points in June.

Regarding the way local government and health officials are handling the COVID-19 crisis, 66 percent say they strongly approve or somewhat approve of the way they are handling things.

Approval of the way Congress is handling the COVID-19 crisis decreased 7 percentage points, with 25 percent saying they strongly approve or somewhat approve of the way Congress is handling things. The net approval rating for congress is minus 39 percentage points.

To see the survey methodology, chart, figures and complete survey results, go to https://wysac.uwyo.edu/wysac/reports/View/6695 .

Of the roughly one-third of Wyomingites who say they or someone in their immediate family has lost their jobs, 64 percent say it’s likely those jobs or employment will return. Of the over half of Wyomingites who say they or someone in their immediate family have seen reductions in hours or pay, 73 percent are optimistic those hours or wages will be restored.

The survey, conducted Monday, April 27, is the third of multiple surveys WYSAC is conducting to measure public opinion on a number of topics related to COVID-19. A total of 496 Wyoming residents participated in the survey representing all Wyoming counties, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

“While most Wyoming residents continue to take the situation seriously, fewer residents are reporting that they are taking preventative measures,” says Brian Harnisch, senior research scientist in charge of the project at WYSAC. “While we do see an increase to nearly half of residents saying they now wear personal protective items in public places, we also see a decline in the number of people avoiding physical contact or turning down visits from friends or family, for example.”

Here are some of this survey’s key findings:

— Of those who report that they or someone in their family has been laid off or lost their jobs (35 percent), 64 percent say it is likely that the jobs or employment will return. Twenty percent say it is unlikely, while 17 percent are unsure if the jobs will return.

— Of those who report that they or someone in their family has seen work hours or pay reduced (57 percent), 73 percent say it is likely that these hours or pay will be restored. Fifteen percent say it is unlikely, while 12 percent are unsure if these hours or pay will be restored.

— Approval of the way Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon is handling the COVID-19 crisis remains high, with 75 percent saying they strongly approve or somewhat approve of the way he is handling things. Gordon’s net approval rating (approval minus disapproval) remains high at plus 54 percentage points.

— Approval of the way President Donald Trump is handling the COVID-19 crisis decreased slightly, with 59 percent saying they strongly approve or somewhat approve of the way he is handling things. Trump’s net approval rating decreased by 5.6 percentage points to plus 20.5 percentage points.

— Approval of the way local government and health officials are handling the COVID-19 crisis remains high, with 77 percent saying they strongly approve or somewhat approve of the way they are handling things. The net approval remains high for this group at plus 59 percentage points.

— Concern about the impact of COVID-19 on the economy continues to increase, with 76 percent saying they are very concerned.

Meanwhile, support for major policies to help prevent the spread of COVID-19 continue to decline:

— 76 percent say they support the closure of K-12 schools, a decrease of 8 percentage points.

— 67 percent say they support the closure of daycare centers, a decrease of 11 percentage points.

— 64 percent say they support the closure of restaurants and bars, a decrease of 12 percentage points.

— 74 percent say they support the limiting of public gatherings, a decrease of 8 percentage points.

— 44 percent say they support a “shelter-in-place” order, a decrease of 4 percentage points.

Fewer Wyomingites say they are following the news about COVID-19 very closely: 43 percent say this is the case, a decrease of 6 percentage points from two weeks ago and a decrease of 14 points from a month ago.

More Wyoming residents say they believe the worst is behind us (20 percent) than did two weeks ago (14 percent). Some 37 percent of residents say the worst is yet to come, a decrease of 10 points from two weeks ago.

While the number of people in Wyoming who say they have not changed their daily routine because of COVID-19 remains steady (12.5 percent), there has been an observable shift from those who say they have changed it a lot to those who say they have changed it a little:

— Nearly 48 percent of residents say they have changed their routine a lot, a decrease of nearly 7 points from two weeks ago. Alternatively, nearly 40 percent say they have changed their routine a little — an increase of nearly 5 points.

— 71 percent of residents say they are avoiding physical contact with others, a decrease of 8 percentage points from two weeks ago.

— 46 percent say they are avoiding houses of worship, and 47 percent say they are declining visits from friends and family — a decrease of roughly 5 points for each from two weeks ago.

— Fewer people say they are spending more time at home in response to the COVID-19 crisis (73 percent) than said they were two weeks ago (78 percent).

— More people report that they are wearing personal protective items in public spaces than said so two weeks ago, with almost half (49 percent) saying they now do this — an increase of 4 percentage points.

Fewer Wyoming residents feel COVID-19 is a real threat that did two weeks ago, with 54 percent saying so now — a decrease of 7 points from two weeks ago. Alternatively, 36 percent say it is blown out of proportion — an increase of 7 points.

There is a trend of an increasing proportion of people who say they are very unlikely to get a vaccine for COVID-19 if one becomes available, with 19 percent saying they are very unlikely to now. Two weeks ago, 15 percent said they were very unlikely, while a month ago 10 percent said this.

Significantly fewer residents say they have had problems in the last two weeks buying the groceries and/or household items they need. Some 62 percent say they have experienced problems buying groceries or other food items, a decrease of 15 points from two weeks ago. Some 49 percent say they have experienced difficulty purchasing household items, a decrease of 18 points from two weeks ago.

To see the survey methodology, chart, figures, and complete survey results, download the full report.

Additionally, over 60 percent of the state’s residents or members of their immediate families have seen their work hours or pay cut because of the pandemic.

The survey, conducted April 13, is the second of multiple surveys WYSAC is conducting to measure public opinion on a number of topics related to COVID-19. A total of 494 Wyoming residents participated in the survey representing all Wyoming counties, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

“We are happy to have the ability field this research regularly throughout this pandemic,” said Brian Harnisch, senior research scientist in charge of the project at WYSAC. “We hope this information continues to prove useful throughout this period to our state and local government officials, the media and our fellow Wyoming community members as a whole.”

Here are some of this survey’s key findings and comparisons with the results from two weeks ago:

— 39.5 percent of residents say they or members of their immediate families have been laid off or lost their jobs, an increase of 7.7 percentage points in the last two weeks.

— 61.1 percent say they or members of their immediate families have seen their work hours or pay cut, an increase of 4.8 percentage points in the last two weeks.

— 74.3 percent say they are very concerned about the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, an increase of 2.9 percentage points.

— 30.6 percent say they are concerned about the impact of COVID-19 on their personal finances, a decrease of 4.9 percentage points.

— 10.6 percent say they have not changed their daily routines specifically because of COVID-19, holding steady from 10.2 percent two weeks ago. Some 35.2 percent have changed their daily routine a little, while 54.2 percent said they have changed it a lot.

— 51.8 percent of residents say they are now declining visits from friends and family, an increase of 4.4 percentage points.

— 71.5 percent of residents say they are eating out less, which represents a decrease of 4 percentage points from two weeks ago.

— Nearly half (45.5 percent) of residents say they now wear personal protective equipment, such as masks and gloves, when in public places.

— Over 77 percent say they are avoiding physical contact with others, spending more time at home and not attending public gatherings — representing the top three changes people have made to their behaviors in response to COVID-19.

— 24.1 percent say that the worst is behind us in the United States, an increase of 16.9 percentage points. Some 44.1 percent say the worst is yet to come, a decrease from 66.6 percent from two weeks ago.

Regarding policies enacted to slow the spread of the virus, support remains high for the closure of K-12 schools, with 84.4 percent support (-.9 percentage points); closure of day care centers, with 78.2 percent support (-2.7 percentage points); and limiting public gatherings, with 82.2 percent support (-6.3 percentage points). Support for a “shelter-in-place” order decreased from 54.4 percent two weeks ago to 47.8 percent (-6.6 percentage points).

If a vaccine becomes available, 76.4 percent say they will likely get the vaccine — a decrease of 3.8 percentage points from two weeks ago. Alternatively, 14.6 percent say they are very unlikely to get the vaccine — an increase of 4.3 percentage points.

The survey also asked for perspectives on the way local, state and national leaders are handling the virus response. Results from those questions include:

— 62.0 percent approve and 35.8 disapprove of the way President Donald Trump is handling COVID-19 — representing a net approval of +26.1 points, a decrease of 1.9 points from two weeks ago. Some 57.6 percent say they trust what they hear about the virus from him, an increase of 1.9 percentage points.

— 76.1 percent approve and 20.8 disapprove of the way Gov. Mark Gordon is handling COVID-19 — representing a net approval rating of +55.3 points, a decrease of 12.6 points from two weeks ago. Some 84.1 percent say they trust what they hear about the virus from him, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points.

— 41.9 percent approve and 49.5 percent disapprove of the way Congress is handling COVID-19 — representing a net approval rating of -7.6 points, a decrease of 2.2 points from two weeks ago.

— 77.4 percent approve and 18.6 percent disapprove of the way their local government and health officials are handling COVID-19 — representing a net approval rating of +58.8, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from two weeks ago. Some 83.2 percent say they trust what they hear about the virus from them, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points.

This survey also asked how much people trust the information they hear about COVID-19 from the national news media, with 41.5 percent saying they trust what they hear a great deal or a good amount. Some 58.5 percent say they trust what they hear not very much or not at all.

Asked about how much they trust what they hear about COVID-19 from their local news media, 66.6 percent said they trust what they hear a great deal or a good amount, while 33.4 percent say they trust what they hear not very much or not at all.

Finally, asked if they think COVID-19 is a real threat or blown out of proportion, 61.0 percent say it is a real threat a 2.1 percentage point decrease; 28.8 percent say its blown out of proportion, a 4.6 percentage point increase; and 10.2 percent are unsure, a 1.8 percentage point decrease.

To see the survey methodology, questions, and complete presentation of results, download the report here.