In the month leading up to the 2024 general election, Wyoming residents were surveyed on a number of issues relevant to the population. The biennial survey of Wyoming residents is conducted by UW’s School of Politics, Public Affairs, and International Studies in partnership with the Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center. The questions focus on attitudes toward government, elected officials, candidates for office, and contemporary policy issues. Questions regarding the survey can be directed to WyOpinion@uwyo.edu.

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A topline report with methodological outline and complete survey results can be found at (https://wysac.uwyo.edu/wysac/reports/View/7735)

When it comes to state leadership, 41 percent of respondents approve of Gov. Mark Gordon’s performance, compared to 22 percent who disapprove (+19). U.S. Sen. John Barrasso receives a 42 percent approval rating, with 29 percent disapproving (+13), while U.S. Sen. Cynthia Lummis has a 30 percent approval rating and 25 percent disapproval (+5). In the U.S. House, Rep. Harriet Hageman enjoys higher approval, with 47 percent of Wyomingites expressing satisfaction with her work, while 27 percent disapprove (+20). These numbers include a “neither approve nor disapprove” option, which ranged from a low of 18 percent for Hageman to a high of 37 percent for Lummis.

The statewide survey was conducted Sept. 24-Oct. 27, yielding 739 responses from randomly selected Wyoming residents. The margin of error for the distribution of responses on any individual survey question is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. Men and women from all age groups and all counties in Wyoming are proportionally represented in the survey data. The final survey data have been weighted to reflect the actual population distribution in Wyoming on gender, age, county of residence, party affiliation and education.

Looking at approval ratings only among those who expressed approval or disapproval, 66 percent of respondents approve of Gordon’s performance, while 34 percent disapprove. Approval ratings for other state leaders are 59 percent approval for Barrasso, 55 percent approval for Lummis and 63 percent approval for Hageman.

The Wyoming Legislature sees 32 percent of residents approving its work and 30 percent disapproving. The Wyoming judiciary garners a favorable view, with over 36 percent approving and around 12 percent disapproving. Looking only at those who expressed approval or disapproval, the Legislature has a 52 percent approval rating, with 48 percent disapproving, while the Wyoming judiciary has a significantly higher approval rating of 76 percent vs. 24 percent who disapprove.

“While federal leaders face discontent, Wyoming’s state officials receive largely favorable reviews, highlighting a preference for local governance,” says Ryan Williamson, an assistant professor of political science at UW. “Additionally, a significant trust gap exists between federal and state governments, with Wyomingites showing much greater confidence in their local leaders.”

In evaluating trust in the federal government, less than 1 percent of Wyomingites feel it can “just about always” be trusted to do what is right. Only 10 percent trust the federal government “most of the time,” while 51 percent believe it can be trusted “some of the time.” Notably, 38 percent of respondents express a severe lack of trust, feeling the federal government cannot ever be trusted to do the right thing.

In contrast, the state government in Cheyenne enjoys comparatively higher trust levels. When posed with the same question, 3 percent of residents believe the state government can almost always be trusted. A more significant portion, 36 percent, trust the state government “most of the time,” and 52 percent believe it can be trusted “some of the time.” Only 8 percent feel the state government can never be trusted to act correctly.

Biennial surveys of Wyoming residents are conducted by UW’s School of Politics, Public Affairs and International Studies in partnership with the Wyoming Survey and Analysis Center. The questions focus on attitudes toward government, elected officials, candidates for office and contemporary policy issues. Questions regarding the survey can be directed to WyOpinion@uwyo.edu.

A top-line report with methodological outline and complete survey results can be found at https://wysac.uwyo.edu/wysac/projects/weys24/.

A random sample of all cellular and land-line telephones was generated for the UW survey. Selected respondents were contacted via email, mail and phone to complete the survey, with 59 percent of responses on the web and the remaining 41 percent via live-interviewer telephone (92 percent cellular).

“This approach to the survey methodology gives every person in Wyoming with a phone an equal probability of selection for the survey,” says Brian Harnisch, director of the Wyoming Survey and Analysis Center. “Survey respondents accurately reflect the statewide population in terms of general demographic characteristics that include age, gender and county of residence, as well as other benchmarks such as party affiliation and educational attainment.”

The survey was conducted July 25-Aug. 6, yielding 562 responses from Wyoming residents identified as likely voters in the Aug. 16 Republican Party primary. The margin of error for the primary survey is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Just over one-quarter, 28 percent, of GOP primary voters support incumbent candidate Cheney, while 57 percent support Hageman. Candidate Anthony Bouchard polled at 2 percent, while candidates Denton Knapp and Robyn Belinskey both polled below 1 percent. Ten percent of likely GOP voters say they are still undecided.

“The race for the Republican nomination appears to be a referendum on Cheney, as it usually is when an incumbent seeks re-election,” says Jim King, professor of political science at UW.

Among survey respondents expecting to vote for Cheney, 66 percent indicated their vote was an expression of support for the incumbent congresswoman. In contrast, 29 percent of respondents expecting to cast ballots for another candidate said they were supporting that candidate, while 41 percent said their vote was in opposition to Cheney.

Traditionally, surveys polling primary elections might utilize lists of registered voters in that party. While that approach may be more cost effective, there are potential shortcomings that needed to be considered in a primary such as this.

“Given the unique attention this race is receiving, and the accompanying increases in voter registration and potential party switching, we decided to field this survey to a random sample of all Wyoming residents on cell phones and landlines and work to identify likely voters in the GOP primary,” says Brian Harnisch, director of WYSAC. “When looking only at residents who say they are Republican and likely voters in the primary, we actually see Hageman leading by roughly 50 points.”

Among Wyoming residents who identify as Democrats and likely voters in this primary season, roughly half say they will vote in the Republican primary. Among this group, Cheney received 98 percent support. Among Republican likely voters in the GOP primary, Cheney is polling at roughly 15 percent. Among likely voters in the primary who identify as independent, support is split, with 41 percent supporting Hageman and 43 percent supporting Cheney.

“There has been much talk in the media about Democrats crossing over and voting in the Republican primary; this group is not especially large,” King says.

Of likely voters in the primary, only 8 percent identify as Democrats, and 21 percent identify as independents. According to King, independents regularly play an important role Republican primaries and thus are key to Cheney’s chances. Her lack of support among Republican identifiers and inability to dominate among independents has placed Cheney well behind Hageman.

In the 2020 primary election, Wyoming saw a roughly 61 percent turnout of registered voters. In the 2020 general election, roughly 100 percent of registered voters turned out to vote. As previously mentioned, roughly half of self-identified Democrats who will vote in a primary indicate they will register for or have registered for the Republican Party and vote in that primary.

“Back-of-the-napkin math says that number could represent as many as 20,000 votes in the GOP primary from currently registered Democrats, compared to as many as 200,000-plus votes from registered Republicans,” Harnisch says. “It does not appear at the time of this survey the numbers are there for party switching to have a significant effect on the outcome of this race.”

Of those likely voters who support Hageman in this primary, only 16 percent believe that Joe Biden’s election as president was legitimate, compared to 94 percent of Cheney supporters. Some 72 percent of Hageman supporters in the GOP primary say there is solid evidence of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election, while 3 percent of Cheney supporters say the same.

When considering how closely likely primary voters have been watching the January 6 House Select Committee hearings, 83 percent of Cheney supporters say they have been following very closely or somewhat closely. Alternatively, 57 percent of Hageman supporters say they have been following not too closely or not closely at all.

Both landline and cellular telephone numbers were randomly generated for the study, resulting in 70 percent of completed surveys on cell phones. The survey was funded by the Wyoming Survey and Analysis Center, UW’s School of Politics, Public Affairs and International Studies, and Wyoming Public Media.

View the complete topline survey results here: https://wysac.uwyo.edu/wysac/reports/View/7723